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Did the Rate Really Differ? Or Was It Chance?

Upload a CSV, pick your binary outcome and two groups — and get each rate with an honest confidence interval, the difference with its own interval, and a clear significance verdict with an exact-test fallback for small samples. Free.

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Free analyses run on up to 10,000 rows. Larger files are randomly sampled to that size — sign up to analyze your full dataset.

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Running proportion tests & confidence intervals analysis...

Comparing the two rates...

Your report is ready

Sent to — per-group rates with Wilson confidence intervals, the significance tests with cross-checks, the difference with its Newcombe interval, R code, and AI insights.

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Sample Output

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How it works

Each group's success rate carries a Wilson score 95% confidence interval, which behaves honestly for small samples and rates near 0% or 100%. The rates are compared with a two-sample proportion z-test on the pooled standard error, cross-checked with the continuity-corrected chi-square test, and the absolute difference carries a Newcombe hybrid 95% interval built from the two Wilson intervals. If any cell of the 2x2 table (successes or failures in either group) has fewer than 5 observations, the normal approximation is unreliable and the verdict comes from Fisher's exact test instead — with the switch disclosed. The success level is detected robustly (1/TRUE/yes-style tokens preferred; otherwise the rarer level, flagged), and the report always states which level counted as success.

Use it when you have a two-valued outcome and two groups and the question is whether the rates genuinely differ — A/B tests, cohort comparisons, defect or churn rates.

Not for 3+ groups (use a many-group categorical test), numeric outcomes (use a group comparison of means), paired designs, or proving the rates are the SAME (that is an equivalence question with its own tool).

Built for: Marketers, product managers, and analysts comparing conversion-style rates between two groups

Typical data source: Any spreadsheet or CSV with a two-valued outcome column and a two-level group column

E-commerceSaaSMarketingManufacturingHealthcareOperations

What data do you need?

One binary outcome plus a two-level group column. For example, conversions by ad variant:

ad_variant (categorical) converted (categorical)
Control yes
Treatment no
yes

Minimum 10 rows · Best with 200-100,000 rows with two groups of comparable size

What's in the report?

Standard-library analysis: did the conversion rate really differ between two groups? Map a binary outcome (0/1, yes/no, TRUE/FALSE, converted/not) and a two-level group column and get each group's rate with a Wilson 95% confidence interval, the two-sample proportion z-test with a continuity-corrected chi-square cross-check, the absolute difference with a Newcombe hybrid confidence interval, the relative change as computed, and an automatic Fisher's exact fallback — clearly disclosed — whenever any cell count is too small for the z-test.

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Rates with Confidence Intervals

The two rates side by side with Wilson 95% error bars — how far apart they sit and how much the intervals overlap.

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Statistical Tests

The z-test, the chi-square cross-check, and (when cells are small) the Fisher's exact test that carries the verdict.

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Group Counts & Rates

The raw counts behind the rates: n, successes, failures, each rate's interval, and the relative change as computed.

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Methods & Disclosure

Full disclosure: success-level detection, why Wilson/Newcombe intervals, the cell-count guard, and the verdict rule.

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AI Insights

Plain-English interpretation — what the numbers mean, what's significant, and what to do next.

The Question This Answers

Did the conversion rate really differ?

Map converted-or-not as the outcome and the variant as the group. You get each variant's rate with an honest confidence interval, the difference with its own interval, and a clear verdict on whether the gap is bigger than chance.

Questions?

See our FAQ for details on pricing, data privacy, and how the analysis works. Every report includes a Methodology section showing the statistical test, assumptions checked, and diagnostics run.

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