Executive Summary
Key findings from the ARIMA avocado price forecasting analysis
The dataset covers 10000 weekly observations across 54 US regions. Conventional avocados averaged $1.16 vs organic at $1.65 — a $0.49 premium for organic. The ARIMA model projects prices 12 weeks ahead with confidence bands.
Avocado Price Trends Over Time
Week-over-week price trends for conventional vs organic avocados 2015-2018
Price trends show 169 weekly observations for conventional and 52 for organic avocados. Conventional prices average $1.16 while organic average $1.65. Both types show seasonal cycles with peaks typically in late summer.
Price Distribution by Avocado Type
Price spread and variability comparison between conventional and organic types
Conventional prices have a standard deviation of $0.263 while organic prices show $0.262 variability. Conventional avocados show greater price spread. The box plots reveal median prices and the range of weekly variation for each type.
Average Price by US Region
Average avocado prices by US region to identify cheapest/most expensive markets
Albany shows the highest average avocado price at $1.48 while PhoenixTucson is the least expensive at $0.73. The chart includes 54 US market regions sorted by average price.
Sales Volume vs Price Relationship
Volume vs price relationship to examine supply-demand dynamics by type
The correlation between avocado price and weekly sales volume is -0.129 — a negative relationship. Higher prices tend to be associated with lower volume, consistent with basic supply-demand dynamics. Points are colored by avocado type to reveal whether conventional and organic follow similar patterns.
ARIMA Price Forecast
ARIMA forecast of avocado prices for next 12 weeks with confidence intervals
The ARIMA model was trained on 169 historical weekly observations and forecasts 12 weeks ahead. Projected prices range $1-$1.16 with an average confidence band width of $0.64. The shaded region shows the 95% prediction interval — wider bands indicate greater forecast uncertainty further into the future.
Regional Price Summary Statistics
Regional price statistics (mean) by avocado type
| Region | Avg Price | Avocado Type |
|---|---|---|
| Albany | 1.35 | conventional |
| Albany | 1.91 | organic |
| Atlanta | 1.07 | conventional |
| Atlanta | 1.71 | organic |
| BaltimoreWashington | 1.34 | conventional |
| BaltimoreWashington | 1.57 | organic |
| Boise | 1.08 | conventional |
| Boise | 1.69 | organic |
| Boston | 1.3 | conventional |
| Boston | 1.8 | organic |
| BuffaloRochester | 1.38 | conventional |
| BuffaloRochester | 1.69 | organic |
| California | 1.11 | conventional |
| California | 1.61 | organic |
| Charlotte | 1.28 | conventional |
| Charlotte | 2 | organic |
| Chicago | 1.37 | conventional |
| Chicago | 1.65 | organic |
| CincinnatiDayton | 1.02 | conventional |
| CincinnatiDayton | 1.43 | organic |
| Columbus | 1.07 | conventional |
| Columbus | 1.54 | organic |
| DallasFtWorth | 0.85 | conventional |
| DallasFtWorth | 1.37 | organic |
| Denver | 1.07 | conventional |
| Denver | 1.33 | organic |
| Detroit | 1.12 | conventional |
| Detroit | 1.63 | organic |
| GrandRapids | 1.33 | conventional |
| GrandRapids | 1.75 | organic |
| GreatLakes | 1.18 | conventional |
| GreatLakes | 1.57 | organic |
| HarrisburgScranton | 1.26 | conventional |
| HarrisburgScranton | 1.82 | organic |
| HartfordSpringfield | 1.41 | conventional |
| Houston | 0.83 | conventional |
| Indianapolis | 1.14 | conventional |
| Jacksonville | 1.19 | conventional |
| LasVegas | 1.01 | conventional |
| LosAngeles | 0.98 | conventional |
| Louisville | 1.11 | conventional |
| MiamiFtLauderdale | 1.25 | conventional |
| Midsouth | 1.21 | conventional |
| Nashville | 1.01 | conventional |
| NewOrleansMobile | 1.09 | conventional |
| NewYork | 1.4 | conventional |
| Northeast | 1.34 | conventional |
| NorthernNewEngland | 1.26 | conventional |
| Orlando | 1.21 | conventional |
| Philadelphia | 1.4 | conventional |
| PhoenixTucson | 0.73 | conventional |
| Pittsburgh | 1.25 | conventional |
| Plains | 1.17 | conventional |
| Portland | 1.05 | conventional |
| RaleighGreensboro | 1.23 | conventional |
| RichmondNorfolk | 1.12 | conventional |
| Roanoke | 1.1 | conventional |
| Sacramento | 1.27 | conventional |
| SanDiego | 1.06 | conventional |
| SanFrancisco | 1.4 | conventional |
| Seattle | 1.17 | conventional |
| SouthCarolina | 1.15 | conventional |
| SouthCentral | 0.87 | conventional |
| Southeast | 1.16 | conventional |
| Spokane | 1.12 | conventional |
| StLouis | 1.19 | conventional |
| Syracuse | 1.39 | conventional |
| Tampa | 1.2 | conventional |
| TotalUS | 1.09 | conventional |
| West | 0.99 | conventional |
| WestTexNewMexico | 0.84 | conventional |
The table summarizes average prices across 71 region-type combinations. Each row shows the mean price for a specific region and avocado type combination. Use this table to identify which markets charge the most for organic vs conventional avocados.