User 136 · Health · Heart · Survival Analysis
Executive Summary

Executive Summary

Key findings from the survival analysis

Patients Analyzed
299
Deaths (Events)
96
Censored Patients
203
Median Survival (days)
Not reached
Survival at 90 Days
0.763
Cox C-Statistic
0.741
Cox Model P-Value
< 0.001
PH Assumption Holds
1
Among 299 heart failure patients (96 deaths), the strongest independent mortality predictor in the Cox model is Hypertension. Median survival could not be determined from the observed follow-up. The Cox model achieves a C-statistic of 0.741, indicating good discriminative ability. The proportional hazards assumption holds globally (Schoenfeld test p > 0.05).
Interpretation

Among 299 heart failure patients (96 deaths), the strongest independent mortality predictor in the Cox model is Hypertension. Median survival could not be determined from the observed follow-up. The Cox model achieves a C-statistic of 0.741, indicating good discriminative ability. The proportional hazards assumption holds globally (Schoenfeld test p > 0.05).

Visualization

Overall Kaplan-Meier Survival Curve

Non-parametric survival estimate with 95% confidence band

Interpretation

The overall Kaplan-Meier curve shows the probability of surviving beyond each follow-up time point for the full cohort of 299 patients. Survival at 30, 90, and 180 days is 88.2%, 76.3%, and 65.4% respectively, with a median survival of not reached. The shaded band shows the 95% confidence interval; wider bands reflect fewer patients at risk at later time points.

Visualization

Stratified Survival by Sex

Kaplan-Meier curves comparing male and female patient survival

Interpretation

Survival curves are stratified by patient sex to compare mortality trajectories between male and female heart failure patients. The sex difference in survival is not statistically significant (log-rank p = 0.9498). Each step in the curve represents one or more observed deaths; flat segments between steps indicate periods with only censored observations.

Visualization

Stratified Survival by Clinical Risk Factors

KM curves for binary risk factors: anaemia, diabetes, hypertension, smoking

Interpretation

Survival curves for four binary clinical risk factors (anaemia, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking) compare patients with and without each condition. A wide vertical separation between 'Present' and 'Absent' curves indicates a strong univariate association with mortality. The largest average survival gap between present/absent groups is observed for Hypertension. Log-rank significance for each factor is shown in the adjacent bar chart.

Visualization

Log-Rank Test Results by Risk Factor

-log10(p) from log-rank tests for binary clinical covariates

Interpretation

Each bar shows -log10(p) from the log-rank test for that binary covariate; bars beyond the dashed line at 1.3 indicate p < 0.05. Hypertension showed a statistically significant survival difference (log-rank p < 0.05). The factor with the strongest univariate signal is Hypertension. Note that log-rank significance does not imply independent effect — use the Cox model for multivariable inference.

Visualization

Cox Proportional Hazards — Hazard Ratios

Forest plot of hazard ratios for all predictors in the multivariable model

Interpretation

Forest plot of hazard ratios from the multivariable Cox model with 11 covariates; bars show 95% confidence intervals. An HR > 1 means increased hazard (shorter survival); HR < 1 means protective. 5 of 11 covariates have CIs that exclude HR = 1.0. The strongest predictor is Hypertension with HR = 1.609 (95% CI: 1.053–2.458).

Data Table

Cox Model Coefficients Table

Hazard ratios, CIs, z-statistics, and p-values for all covariates

P ValueZ ScoreCI LowerCI UpperPredictorHazard Ratio
04.9771.0291.067Age1.048
0-4.6720.9330.972Ejection Fraction0.952
04.5751.2011.582Serum Creatinine1.379
0.0575-1.8990.9141.001Serum Sodium0.957
0.0262.22511CPK Enzyme1
0.6806-0.41211Platelets1
0.03382.1221.0362.423Anaemia1.584
0.53070.6270.7431.781Diabetes1.15
0.02782.2011.0532.458Hypertension1.609
0.3452-0.9440.4821.291Sex (Male)0.789
0.60780.5130.6951.861Smoking1.138
Interpretation

Complete Cox regression output for all 11 covariates. 6 predictors are significant at the 0.05 level. The overall model is statistically significant (likelihood ratio test p = 0). C-statistic = 0.741, confirming the model's discriminative capacity.

Visualization

Proportional Hazards Assumption Check (Schoenfeld Residuals)

Scaled Schoenfeld residuals over time for each covariate

Interpretation

Scaled Schoenfeld residuals are plotted against event time for each of the 11 covariates in the Cox model. A random scatter around zero (horizontal) indicates the hazard ratio is constant over follow-up, consistent with the proportional hazards assumption. A clear trend (rising or falling) signals a time-varying hazard ratio. Global Schoenfeld test p > 0.05 — the proportional hazards assumption is not rejected.

Visualization

Time-Dependent Predictive Accuracy (AUC)

IPCW-adjusted AUC at 30, 90, and 180-day landmarks

Interpretation

Time-dependent AUC estimates the Cox model's ability to separate patients who die by each landmark from those who survive beyond it. An AUC of 0.5 means no discrimination; AUC of 1.0 is perfect. The model achieves good discrimination (AUC ≥ 0.70) across the 3 evaluated time points, with best AUC of 0.77 at 180 days. Average AUC across landmarks is 0.757.

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