Purpose

This section delivers the core deliverable of the revenue forecasting analysis: a month-by-month projection of sales for the next 6 months with quantified uncertainty bounds. It translates the ETS(A,N,A) model into actionable planning ranges for the Executive/Finance Team, enabling confident budget allocation and capacity decisions across the forecast horizon.

Key Findings

6-Month Forecast Total: $312,513.12 — Represents expected cumulative revenue across Jan–Jun 2019, averaging ~$52,086/month
80% Confidence Interval: Defines the high-probability planning band where actual sales have an 80% likelihood of falling; tighter than the 95% range for operational planning
95% Confidence Interval: Provides conservative downside and upside bounds for risk and opportunity scenarios; wider margins reflect model uncertainty over the 6-month horizon
Seasonal Pattern: Forecast incorporates the additive seasonal component identified in decomposition, with March and May showing elevated projections relative to February and June

Interpretation

The forecast reflects 48 months of historical data (2015–2018) with a MAPE of 21.92%, indicating moderate accuracy typical of seasonal business data. The widening confidence intervals across months reflect increasing forecast uncertainty as the horizon extends. The point estimates balance the observed trend (